A sick body develops a fever. Its temperature rises as it tries to fight off the pathogen. Sometimes the fever aids its recovery. At other times it becomes too intense, and kills it. It appears that civilizations may become sick as well, and the most obvious symptom of their illness is a precious metals fever.
Since the beginning of 2025, the price of gold has increased by 60%. The price of silver has done even better, rising by 100%. These are unusual moves, that should be concerning to everyone. A rapid increase in the price of gold and silver is usually not a good sign. Mainstream analysts may write this off as some sort of a speculative bubble. After all, it appears that the rate of inflation in the US has subsided, from a peak of 9.1% in 2022 to around 3% today. Growth seems to be robust, and the stock market is again near an all time high. From a purely economic perspective, there is no explanation to the sudden demand for safe haven assets such as gold and silver. It is only once you look beyond the dry and sometimes misleading data, that the meteoric rise of precious metals suddenly makes sense.
In February of 2022, following the invasion of Ukraine, the United States declared unprecedented economic sanctions against Russia. Russian foreign exchange reserves were frozen, and Russian banks were cut off from the SWIFT payment system, effectively eliminating their ability to conduct international trade. This blatant weaponization of the US dollar shocked the world, and made it clear to the BRICS nations that in order to protect themselves from such sanctions they must reduce their exposure to the US dollar. Unsurprisingly, the prices of gold and silver bottomed shortly after, in October of 2022. The increased demand for precious metals by Eastern central banks played a key role in this rally. At its core lies a deep mistrust in Western leadership and its erratic behavior. Countries such as Russia and China perceive the West as being ruled by a childish and capricious elite, which is all the more dangerous, because it is so unpredictable and treacherous.
But the growing suspicion towards Western governments is not limited to foreign powers. The citizens of the West feel this way as well. Not a day goes by without some horror story on the news, demonstrating the disdain with which these governments treat their own citizens. Yesterday, for instance, it was about the January 2025 stabbing attack in Aschaffenburg, Germany, in which a toddler and an adult man were murdered by an Afghan asylum seeker, and others were seriously wounded. The man, who prior to the attack had no less than 18 criminal charges against him, and a history of mental illness, was for some reason released from custody again and again, and allowed to commit this heinous crime. Even now, that his criminal tendencies have been proven beyond doubt, the German authorities cannot bring themselves to punish him properly, and instead decided to commit him to a psychiatric hospital, where he will continue to live at the expense of the German taxpayer for the rest of his life.
This is of course not an isolated event, but a repeating pattern, in which Western governments are showing extreme generosity towards illegal migrants and leniency towards their crimes, while treating their own citizens very harshly and restricting their human rights. The UK, for instance, is currently spending billions of pounds on housing and feeding illegal migrants in high-end hotels, while raising taxes on its own citizens and driving high-net-worth individuals away. Migrants who commit sexual assaults often receive nothing but a slap on the wrist, while British citizens who dare to criticize this policy on social media find themselves locked up in prison for years. According to the political elite, due to the low birth rate, the West is in desperate need of immigration. But its utter disregard for the social consequences of the open border policy suggests that its true motives are far darker, and aim at the complete replacement of the native population. As a matter of fact, in a recent policy paper the Trump administration voiced its concern regarding "the stark prospect of civilizational erasure” of Europe, stating that “should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less”.
Another example of the way in which Western governments are acting against their own best interest is the “net zero” energy policy, which they pursue with an almost religious zeal. In the European Union, this policy seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030, and by 90% by 2040, compared to 1990 levels. This will do away with all coal and natural-gas burning power plants. On top of that, certain countries such as Germany have also decided to eliminate all nuclear power plants as well, and rely entirely on renewable sources of energy such as solar panels and wind turbines. As a result, the price of electricity in these countries is expected to skyrocket, and energy intensive industries will no longer be feasible. Europe will de-industrialize, and become dependent on imports. Due to the intermittent nature of the renewable sources of energy, the electrical grid will become increasingly unstable. Periodic blackouts, like the one we’ve seen in Spain and in Portugal in April this year, will become the norm. All this will have no impact whatsoever on the climate, because as Europe scales down its emissions, countries such as China and India are increasing theirs. Even if you believe that global warming is indeed man made, the destruction of the European economy will do nothing to stop it.
Last but not least, we should point out that the ECB is in the process of launching a CBDC. It has recently completed the preparation stage, and plans to pass the necessary legislation at the European parliament and council during 2026. Once it is officially launched, sometime in 2027, the European Union will have total control over the finances of its citizens. It will be able to monitor all transactions, freeze the bank accounts of political dissidents and restrict the movement of capital at the stroke of a key. What little economic freedom and privacy Europeans enjoy today will be gone, and they won't even have the ability to organize and protest.
The average person is watching this insanity with growing concern, and quietly moving some of their savings out of the system. In this digital age, in which all of our movements can be tracked, there is only one practical way to do so - through holding physical gold and silver. Thanks to their scarcity, even a small amount of them can preserve a great deal of wealth. They can easily be tucked away at a secret location, far from the eyes of the authorities. We are told that retail investors in the West hardly own any precious metals, and that they did not participate in the current rally. In that case, they are likely to join it soon. It is only typical for Western investors to hop on a train which is already moving, rather than board it peacefully when it is standing at the station. When they finally catch the gold and silver fever, this will be a sight to behold.
For those of us who have studied their history, this is eerily reminiscent of events that took place in the Western Roman empire prior to its collapse. We often mention the gradual debasement of its currency as the cause of its economic and later political decline. The Denarius, which during the heyday of the republic was an almost pure silver coin, eventually turned into a bronze coin with nothing but a thin silver plating. This process coincided with invasions, epidemics, natural disasters and civil wars, which forced the emperors to spend above and beyond what they could raise in taxes. An easy way for them to make up the shortfall was to reduce the amount of precious metal in the newly minted coins, which inevitably led to inflation. In order to protect themselves from this practice, Roman citizens used to hoard the older coins, which were known to be of a higher degree of purity, just as we hoard bullion today.
What we neglect to mention regarding ancient Rome, is that the moral character of its ruling elite degraded along with its currency. The Roman aristocracy, who gained its fame by leading its armies into battle, became decadent and cowardly. In the year 408 AD, when the Visigoths laid siege to Rome, instead of fighting them off they chose to placate them with 5,000 pounds of gold and 30,000 pounds of silver. To raise this sum, they resorted to melting down the statues of their ancient gods. As the contemporary historian Zosimus noted, when the statue of Virtus was melted, all that remained of the Roman valor was extinguished. This desperate act gave Rome a reprieve for only two years, because in 410 AD the Visigoths were back, and this time they sacked Rome and decimated its population.
The lesson to be learned here is that it isn’t epidemics, natural disasters or even inflation, which destroy civilizations. A people which is confident in itself and in its culture is able to endure through all of these. It is the decadence of the elite and the erosion of moral values that make a civilization sick, and may ultimately kill it. As the people lose confidence in their leadership, they also lose faith in the currency which it issues, and seek the refuge of precious metals. We have seen this happen countless times throughout history, and I am confident we shall see this again. Usually, the public favors gold, because it is more rare in nature. But this time around, we expect silver to be front and center. The decades-long abuse of the silver market has led to the consumption of all the above-ground inventories by industry. As amazing as it may sound, silver may now be even more scarce than gold.