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World Order in the Post-Post-Cold War Era
World Order in the Post-Post-Cold War Era.pdf
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Summary:

From an Institute of Defense study from mid 90s, the least likely to most likely scenarios of World Order for the Post-Post-Cold War Era were laid out.

Source: World Order in the Post-Post-Cold-War Era: Beyond the Rogue State Problem? By Bradley H. Roberts - IDA 1996

🔘LEAST LIKELY SCENARIOS:

Cold War Redux

  • A peer competitor (Russia or China) revives a bipolar standoff with the U.S.
  • Strategic nuclear rivalry returns, with containment and alliance-building as the U.S. response.
  • Considered unlikely in the near-term (2000-2010) because neither Russia nor China had the global reach or alliances to sustain it.

Multipolarity

  • Several regional powers (EU, India, Brazil, Japan, etc.) dominate their own spheres.
  • The U.S. retreats to a hemispheric role.
  • Unlikely in the near-term because Europe, Japan, India, and Brazil lacked political or military cohesion to balance the U.S.

New Medievalism

  • State sovereignty erodes under transnational institutions, corporations, NGOs, and non-state actors.
  • Power becomes fragmented, overlapping, and less tied to military force.
  • Possible long-term, but less likely by 2010 since states still commanded loyalty and the U.S. showed no signs of retreat.

🌐 MORE LIKELY SCENARIOS:

Order Enlarged

  • Democratic, market-oriented states expand and integrate further.
  • Multilateral institutions (UN, NATO, WTO, etc.) deepen cooperation and marginalize military aggression.
  • Wars between major powers vanish, while the U.S. leads as “first among equals.”
  • Seen as the preferred outcome for U.S. interests.

Stagnant Order

  • The world splits into two zones:
    • Secure, wealthy states (North America, Europe, East Asia).
    • Poor, unstable states (Africa, parts of Asia and Latin America).
  • Violence, collapsed states, and WMD “thugs” dominate the weaker zones.
  • The U.S. focuses on insulating the secure world and containing threats at the margins.

Contested Order

  • Inequality and stagnation breed resentment against the U.S.-led system.
  • States or movements demand “justice,” using ideology, rhetoric, or force to challenge the order.
  • Could involve a major power leading an anti-U.S. coalition, undermining international institutions and risking instability.
  • Considered a realistic danger if U.S. leadership is seen as unjust or self-serving.

Why It Looks Today Like Contested Order

  • U.S. vs China: Silver (like rare earths, lithium, cobalt) is now part of the economic/ideological contest. Control of supply = control of the energy transition and advanced military tech.
  • Weaponization of resources: China has shown willingness to restrict exports (rare earths in 2010, gallium/germanium in 2023). Silver could be the next pressure point.
  • Challengers framing justice: Many in the Global South argue the Western-led financial order hoarded wealth, while they (with the resources) deserve more power. China channels this grievance through BRICS+, offering financing and partnerships in exchange for access.
  • Investors see the trap: If physical silver supply is revealed as critically tight — hoarding and shortages could crash the “paper” market (COMEX, LBMA). The market is kept unaware to avoid panic, a direct echo of the IDA warning that order collapses if seen as unjust or rigged.